Considering the almost never-ending list of major economic catastrophes that afflict the planet, it would seem that the Riksbank Prize (Nobel) committee should consider suspending their award out of sheer embarrassment. I mean, what exactly must go further wrong before they decide that maybe, just maybe, the folks they have been giving the prizes to are crazy.
Well, it didn't happen this year. They managed to find some more neoliberal crackpots that have managed to hide their bullshit beneath some fancy-sounding theories and good-looking math. This is apparently enough (according to the Riksbank jurors) to make folks forget that their economics will lead to neofeudalism, slavery, child labor, massive unemployment, environmental catastrophes and the rest of lovely manifestations of backward economic thinking.
The whole Riksbank / Nobel charade was designed to single out economics as somehow more scientific than the rest of the social sciences. This is clearly a lie—real science recognizes errors and seeks to correct them. This is why science makes progress while other forms of thinking do not. How any thinking that deliberately seeks to bring back 19th century capitalism can been considered scientific is a mystery. But then, the Riksbank Prize isn't designed to reward scientific progress—it is designed to put a "scientific" gloss on some ugly and evil ideology. The prizes of 2013 do just that.
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
The Predator classes defend their crimes
Anyone who has seen the phalanx of robocops surrounding the gatherings of high finance will not be the least bit surprised by the following stories. Yes, the moneychangers are mostly protected by their myths and the idea that they are privy to the secrets of prosperity. But when that doesn't work, they will readily resort to naked force—they didn't invent the sheriff sales last week, after all.
It should also be noted that the financiers don't confine their use of force to foreclosure auctions. There is ample evidence that they will involve the nation's military to enforce their predation. The Nye commission investigating the corrupt practices that led the USA to involve itself in WW I came to the conclusion that one of the primary reasons was to protect the interests of the Morgan Bank—which stood to lose a fortune if France and England were to lose. Smedley Butler in his "War is a Racket" claimed that a large part of his military career had been spent providing muscle for Wall Street.
It should also be noted that the financiers don't confine their use of force to foreclosure auctions. There is ample evidence that they will involve the nation's military to enforce their predation. The Nye commission investigating the corrupt practices that led the USA to involve itself in WW I came to the conclusion that one of the primary reasons was to protect the interests of the Morgan Bank—which stood to lose a fortune if France and England were to lose. Smedley Butler in his "War is a Racket" claimed that a large part of his military career had been spent providing muscle for Wall Street.
Saturday, October 12, 2013
Friday, October 11, 2013
Thursday, October 10, 2013
The Republican War on Christmas
Over on DailyKos, GreenMother posted How to Think Ahead, or: What the GOP is really asking for, following to its logical conclusions the inevitable result of Republican policies and the GOP's recent actions.
....we hit the debt ceiling. 22 million veterans fail to receive their retirement checks and their disability compensation. Millions fail to receive their Social Security. Thousands of government workers are now furloughed indefinitely and the stocks crash. Basically the GOP wants to take us through the insanity that occurred in Greece and Spain....
You see the GOP can't think ahead at all, not in terms of steps nor in terms of time, so that they cannot conceive that when they punish what they consider the mooching poor--which would be the indigent, the military retirees, the disabled veteran, the disabled citizen, the surviving spouse or children, and the elderly--that somehow all these individual punishments (deprivation of money) happens in a vacuum.
....With elderly relatives that might be receiving retirement, SSI and Disability payments--which is entirely possible, along with annuity payments for loved ones that gave the ultimate sacrifice--ALL THAT MONEY JUST DISAPPEARS.
It doesn't just disappear from our hands, it disappears from our local economies. Suddenly money that pays for utilities, groceries, prescription drugs, pet food or service animal food, for school lunches or college books and tuition is just gone.
....With the increased strain on the economy, the low confidence in it by investors, a new round of lay offs starts up, right around Thanksgiving. Millions of people simply have nothing to fall back on at all. Their retirements are gone, their disability is gone, everything is simply gone. This reduces the need for goods and services because who has money to buy diddley shit during times like that?
....So what happens to ...the normal Christmas holiday season[?] ...Who can buy gifts when everyone is so concerned with food and heating their homes, if they still have homes?
Carbon budgets
Perhaps the thing that bothers me most about the climate change debate is the complete lack of urgency. For some reason, even those who understand the science seem unimpressed by how little time we have to change our habits of life to conform to a world where fire is really no longer an option. For example, in the following piece we are told that if we don't change business as usual, we will exceed the 3.6°F (2°C) target by 2040. For most people, this seems like a long time away and certainly doesn't require our attention like the subject of what we will eat for dinner tonight.
So here's a message from those of us who have built things: Everything takes longer that it seems like it should. If, for example, we decide that we must replace domestic air travel with high-speed electric rail systems, we should get started laying track this week if we expect it to replace a system as large as domestic air transport by 2040. In fact, when you add in all the delays in funding and opposition from the NIMBYs, greedheads, and vested interests—it probably would have been a good idea to start laying new track about 15 years ago.
This little bit of reality is why I get so frustrated with the well-meaning who assume that if we could only get our political decision-making in line, the problems would be solved. Yes it's a start but it would only be a start. You still have to build the new systems and GET THEM TO WORK.
My other hope was that we could build the new green / solar society with the fuels we still have. Since we have already passed Peak Oil and are looking at less than 27 years to rebuild our civilizations, this solution looks increasingly impossible with each passing day. The time for position papers and global conferences for the concerned has passed. The time for laying track and building net-zero houses is now or never.
So here's a message from those of us who have built things: Everything takes longer that it seems like it should. If, for example, we decide that we must replace domestic air travel with high-speed electric rail systems, we should get started laying track this week if we expect it to replace a system as large as domestic air transport by 2040. In fact, when you add in all the delays in funding and opposition from the NIMBYs, greedheads, and vested interests—it probably would have been a good idea to start laying new track about 15 years ago.
This little bit of reality is why I get so frustrated with the well-meaning who assume that if we could only get our political decision-making in line, the problems would be solved. Yes it's a start but it would only be a start. You still have to build the new systems and GET THEM TO WORK.
My other hope was that we could build the new green / solar society with the fuels we still have. Since we have already passed Peak Oil and are looking at less than 27 years to rebuild our civilizations, this solution looks increasingly impossible with each passing day. The time for position papers and global conferences for the concerned has passed. The time for laying track and building net-zero houses is now or never.
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
Nate Silver writes about the power of statistics
I have a weird passion—I love the subject of statistics. When I was at the University of Minnesota, it was possible to get a BS degree from the College of Liberal Arts (instead of a BA) if you took the stats sequence which included three quarters at the upperclass level and one quarter at the graduate level. UM was VERY proud of its role in introducing statistics to the social sciences. The psyche department had developed a wildly profitable test called the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory in 1943 that used regression analysis. In those days, the math was done on slide rules. Because the military found the test useful, it became so widely used, it is a rare American who hasn't taken the test at least once. The UM collects royalties to this day.
So here's the scene I stumbled into. The social science departments at UM believed in their bones that stats were the key to fame and fortune. On the other side of the campus, the computer science department had become a feeder system for the area manufacturers such as Honeywell, Control Data, and Cray so were also full of themselves. The social science guys hated doing regression analysis on slide rules. Someone had written a piece of software called the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences that did the necessary computations in seconds rather than months. So the Social Sciences had managed to get their hands on an IBM 360, the computer jockeys got everything working, and someone like me got to play with a world-class computer for a $5 / quarter lab fee. I mean, what wasn't to love?
The problem with this academic circle-jerk was that a whole bunch of people came to believe that you could generate questions almost at random and if you asked them to a well-selected sample, math would discover the meaningful questions and math would discover the important correlations between them. You could look at a question with no historical background, no experience, and no expertise and still find important answers because, by gum, you had an IBM 360 by your side.
While stats are so powerful they literally form a new branch of epistemology, they are far more likely to be used to confuse and deceive. But even when stats are used by people who are genuinely trying to understand their world, there are just folks who do it better than others. And probably the most elite practitioner in the world of stats these days is Nate Silver—who has written a new book on how to tell the difference between important data and the noise. When Silver argues that "that we frequently go wrong in many areas when we adopt a single model or approach to a problem, when an evolving, flexible, multiple-input, probabilistic approach would serve us better" it comes as music to me because this is why I argue that heterodox economics is always superior to orthodox economics and that the most important habit of thought is evolution or continuous improvement.
So here's the scene I stumbled into. The social science departments at UM believed in their bones that stats were the key to fame and fortune. On the other side of the campus, the computer science department had become a feeder system for the area manufacturers such as Honeywell, Control Data, and Cray so were also full of themselves. The social science guys hated doing regression analysis on slide rules. Someone had written a piece of software called the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences that did the necessary computations in seconds rather than months. So the Social Sciences had managed to get their hands on an IBM 360, the computer jockeys got everything working, and someone like me got to play with a world-class computer for a $5 / quarter lab fee. I mean, what wasn't to love?
The problem with this academic circle-jerk was that a whole bunch of people came to believe that you could generate questions almost at random and if you asked them to a well-selected sample, math would discover the meaningful questions and math would discover the important correlations between them. You could look at a question with no historical background, no experience, and no expertise and still find important answers because, by gum, you had an IBM 360 by your side.
While stats are so powerful they literally form a new branch of epistemology, they are far more likely to be used to confuse and deceive. But even when stats are used by people who are genuinely trying to understand their world, there are just folks who do it better than others. And probably the most elite practitioner in the world of stats these days is Nate Silver—who has written a new book on how to tell the difference between important data and the noise. When Silver argues that "that we frequently go wrong in many areas when we adopt a single model or approach to a problem, when an evolving, flexible, multiple-input, probabilistic approach would serve us better" it comes as music to me because this is why I argue that heterodox economics is always superior to orthodox economics and that the most important habit of thought is evolution or continuous improvement.
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
Iceland—five years on
Five years ago today, Iceland became the first casualty of the financial crash of 2008. These last five years have been a time of great uncertainty for the Icelanders. They have been put on a terrorist watchlist. They had two referenda. They have elected a left government and have now thrown it out. And yet by comparison to some other lands that got in the way of the financial crash of 2008, like Ireland, they have been amazingly fortunate.
Several things made it better for the Icelanders. They had their own currency. They have vast renewable energy resources such as hydro and geothermal. They have a highly literate populace that is politically pretty sophisticated. Their culture did not overvalue banking so they were suspicious of the go-go bankers even before they failed.
Still these five years have been miserable for many people. And the flaws in banking that caused the crash of 2008 have not only NOT been fixed, most of them have gotten considerably worse.
A look back—first by Deutsche Welle and then by The Guardian—two sources that have been pretty sympathetic to the banksters and the stories they have told since 2008.
Several things made it better for the Icelanders. They had their own currency. They have vast renewable energy resources such as hydro and geothermal. They have a highly literate populace that is politically pretty sophisticated. Their culture did not overvalue banking so they were suspicious of the go-go bankers even before they failed.
Still these five years have been miserable for many people. And the flaws in banking that caused the crash of 2008 have not only NOT been fixed, most of them have gotten considerably worse.
A look back—first by Deutsche Welle and then by The Guardian—two sources that have been pretty sympathetic to the banksters and the stories they have told since 2008.
Monday, October 7, 2013
Fukushima: Japan sends aid call to the world community
Yesterday, I started getting a large (for me) number of hits from a site in Germany about Fukushima. Turns out that they were coming from a very sober site dedicated to economics. This worried me a bit because I haven't been following Fukushima as closely as the subject deserves. Worse, the post they were linking to was from March 28, 2012 a year and a half ago. When I looked at my post again, it made perfect sense because I had embedded a German-language (with captioning) documentary clip about a Fukushima engineer who was trying his best every day to figure out what to do next. He was doing this even though his work is killing him with radiation poisoning.
This is different—the Japanese are calling out for help. The folks who can build Lexus and bullet trains are admitting they cannot solve this problem by themselves. The Japanese are famously proud of their self-sufficiency. They would't be asking for help unless they were utterly overwhelmed. This, folks, is scary stuff. And surprise, surprise, some of this disaster has been caused by Tepco trying to fix things on the cheap. Well, Mr. Abe, you wanted to stimulate your economy—here's a good reason to spend a LOT of money.
Anyway, the site that sent me those page views has a compelling story to tell. I am extremely flattered to be mentioned in association with such important journalism. Here it is, translated by Google (which does a damn fine job with German.)
This is different—the Japanese are calling out for help. The folks who can build Lexus and bullet trains are admitting they cannot solve this problem by themselves. The Japanese are famously proud of their self-sufficiency. They would't be asking for help unless they were utterly overwhelmed. This, folks, is scary stuff. And surprise, surprise, some of this disaster has been caused by Tepco trying to fix things on the cheap. Well, Mr. Abe, you wanted to stimulate your economy—here's a good reason to spend a LOT of money.
Anyway, the site that sent me those page views has a compelling story to tell. I am extremely flattered to be mentioned in association with such important journalism. Here it is, translated by Google (which does a damn fine job with German.)
Sunday, October 6, 2013
The Punishers Want To Run The Country or We Are All Tipped Waitstaff Now
The other day, Eschaton pointed to an article by which uses the example of tipping in restaurants to explain the Republican / conservative mind, The Punishers Want To Run The Country or We Are All Tipped Waitstaff Now. Just in case you missed it, the article was -- is inspired by the correct phrase here? Perhaps reaction to is better, but that phrase fails to catch the brilliance of its creation -- the screed of Fox Business Network -- asshole is definitely the correct word here, though his proper title is economic journalist, an abuse of the English language if ever there was one -- Stuart Varney, who was asked about federal government employees, and just let his inner ghoul speak: "I want to punish these people." (Honest to God, Varney said that, live, on TV; you really should watch it to see for yourself the truly reptilian psychopath lurking in Varney's bleak soul. No wonder Fox news viewers are exhibiting pathologies of cumulative brain damage.)
To give you the brief synopsis, though I urge you to go read the entire article, there is an owner of a very nice, upscale restaurant who he felt that" tipping overvalued the work the waiter was doing and undervalued the work the back of the house staff did," so he eliminated tipping. To his surprise and amazement, he found that there were certainpersonality types customers who became infuriated that they could no longer tip, because "they
actively enjoyed imagining using the threat of the withheld tip to
punish bad service."
Now, if you have read Thorstein Veblen's The Theory of the Leisure Class, you will immediately recognize that what this unsuspecting restauranteur had run up against was a classic example of "the predatory temperament... which have to do with ownership... and the subsidiary functions concerned with acquisition and accumulation" (which Veblen discusses in Chapter Nine - The Conservation of Archaic Traits. But since most people have not read Veblen, perhaps
To give you the brief synopsis, though I urge you to go read the entire article, there is an owner of a very nice, upscale restaurant who he felt that" tipping overvalued the work the waiter was doing and undervalued the work the back of the house staff did," so he eliminated tipping. To his surprise and amazement, he found that there were certain
Now, if you have read Thorstein Veblen's The Theory of the Leisure Class, you will immediately recognize that what this unsuspecting restauranteur had run up against was a classic example of "the predatory temperament... which have to do with ownership... and the subsidiary functions concerned with acquisition and accumulation" (which Veblen discusses in Chapter Nine - The Conservation of Archaic Traits. But since most people have not read Veblen, perhaps
The Republican Party at this point in time is entirely made up of Punishers who think they are entitled to treat the government--and especially the government of Barack Obama--as waiters who need to be shown their place. This should surprise no one. At heart the entire Republican Party is made up of winners and losers and they are united in just one thing: they think that money is the only way to tell who is who. If you have money, you use that to distinguish yourself from the losers and to demonstrate your superiority by punishing them further. If you are a loser--a worker, for example, or have no health insurance (say) your job as a Republican is to take your status as a given, accept it, and turn around and get your jollies kicking someone else farther down the line.
Saturday, October 5, 2013
Ikea to start selling solar panels at UK stores
This is a solar story with all the great elements. It is proof positive that solar has moved out of the experimental stage. For years I have advised people to follow the Home Depot rule "Don't buy any technology until they start selling it in places—like Home Depot—used to dealing with the problems of the general public." Well, Ikea certainly qualifies. This is really a big deal because MOST Ikea customers are barely qualified to assemble a desk much less install solar panels on a roof and hooking them into the electrical systems—no matter how reliable or cost effective the panels themselves may be. After all, I once heard someone describe assembling a couple of Ikea kitchen cabinets as an "ordeal."
My guess is that Ikea will be providing more detailed installation manuals than their typical pictograph instructions. In fact, they will probably recommend professional installers. Even so, solar is well on its way towards being a normal player in the energy mix. I have been waiting a very long time for this day.
My guess is that Ikea will be providing more detailed installation manuals than their typical pictograph instructions. In fact, they will probably recommend professional installers. Even so, solar is well on its way towards being a normal player in the energy mix. I have been waiting a very long time for this day.
Ocean acidification
Air pollution is always a smaller problem than water pollution—mostly because the air is cleansed by the water that falls from the skies. I have assumed that it wasn't going to take long for CO2 in the atmosphere to become carbonic acid in the water supplies. Only last Saturday the 14th, I linked to an incredibly well-done piece in the Seattle Times on what happens when CO2 goes to sea. Today's piece is on the same subject only from The Guardian.
Got into a "debate" this week with someone who has decided that because fracking has been so "successful," we don't have to worry our pretty little minds about Peak Oil. Now for anyone who actually learned what Hubbard wrote about Peak Oil, fracking is proof positive that Peak Oil HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. And that's the problem with debating the deniers—they have such an amazingly confused set of ideas involved with a subject such as Peak Oil, it would require several hours just to get the terms of the debate agreed upon. Or as Mark Twain was reported to have said, "Never debate with the ignorant—they drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience."
So no, I am not expecting that proof that CO2 emissions are destroying the oceans will change any minds in the camps of the deniers. But for those of us who stayed awake in high school chemistry class, this new evidence merely confirms that science still works.
Got into a "debate" this week with someone who has decided that because fracking has been so "successful," we don't have to worry our pretty little minds about Peak Oil. Now for anyone who actually learned what Hubbard wrote about Peak Oil, fracking is proof positive that Peak Oil HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. And that's the problem with debating the deniers—they have such an amazingly confused set of ideas involved with a subject such as Peak Oil, it would require several hours just to get the terms of the debate agreed upon. Or as Mark Twain was reported to have said, "Never debate with the ignorant—they drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience."
So no, I am not expecting that proof that CO2 emissions are destroying the oceans will change any minds in the camps of the deniers. But for those of us who stayed awake in high school chemistry class, this new evidence merely confirms that science still works.
Friday, October 4, 2013
My computer is back from its shutdown
It seems to work just fine. And it didn't cost a dime to fix (other than a drive to Minneapolis.) I was looking at a $425 fix which is enough money to wonder if a four-year-old computer was worth repairing. Turns out the video card was shutting down—as designed—because it was overheating. These iMacs are so nice because they can run without a fan BUT that means the air passages must operate like new. Mine had gotten dusty—I figure I was losing 40% of my intake air flow. So on a suggestion from MicroCenter's tech support, I cleaned the air vents, lowered the brightness of the display, and simplified my desktop. This afternoon, I ran a full-screen hi-def .mkv movie for around 90 minutes. A week ago, this very operation shut down my computer abruptly after 25 minutes with a need for a hard reboot to get started again.
These problems surfaced when I upgraded my OS to 10.8.5. My iMac now has this program called Dictation—it was the reason I was willing to try another OS (I started installing new OS at system 6—nine systems upgrades ago). It is a voice to text program that reportedly works well (the learning curve starts today). It is a desktop version of the iPhone's ever popular Siri which several friends just swear by. It works mostly because the major processing activity takes place at some big-brother Apple computer—I'd worry about privacy issues but when it comes to my writing, that horse left the barn many years ago. We will see. As someone who never learned touch-typing, just getting text written out is more work than it should be. On the other hand, organizing my thoughts verbally is quite a different skill than the way I write. It would be nice if I can make this work.
These problems surfaced when I upgraded my OS to 10.8.5. My iMac now has this program called Dictation—it was the reason I was willing to try another OS (I started installing new OS at system 6—nine systems upgrades ago). It is a voice to text program that reportedly works well (the learning curve starts today). It is a desktop version of the iPhone's ever popular Siri which several friends just swear by. It works mostly because the major processing activity takes place at some big-brother Apple computer—I'd worry about privacy issues but when it comes to my writing, that horse left the barn many years ago. We will see. As someone who never learned touch-typing, just getting text written out is more work than it should be. On the other hand, organizing my thoughts verbally is quite a different skill than the way I write. It would be nice if I can make this work.
Thursday, October 3, 2013
Pit stop
Nothing like a little computer glitch to take me out of the game. It isn't serious and I hope things get back to normal soon but getting along with a strange back-up computer, no matter how well it works, it still a bit disorientating. Doing a blog post every day WILL turn a man into creature of habit and those habits are not especially easy to disrupt.
Our carbon-footprint-reducing house projects did not make a lot of progress this summer. My partner broke her arm this spring so was MIA for couple of months. She is critical because she is the painter. I have a bunch of relevant homeowner skills but painting is NOT one of them. Then we decided to rescue windows that had been varnished instead of just painting them. This involved a lot of tedious hand sanding, bleaching out black water stains, and sanding some more. Of course, the side facing out still had to be painted so we were actually doing a two-toned finish job. It was more like performing a careful restoration on a valued old piece of furniture than rebuilding some 55-year-old windows that had suffered from neglect and Minnesota winters. We have been especially happy with 3M's line of green sandpaper and the low-gloss, low-volitile, water-based, clear, urethane version of spar varnish. They look great but we will see if we really fixed the infiltration problems. This obviously doesn't fix the problem of a poorly-performing weather envelope but it's a start. And it's alright that we haven't rushed into the big insulation fixes because getting it right is more important that doing it now.
It is probably a good thing that I have had these distractions over the past few days because when I watch utter morons actually shut down the government because they can no longer win elections, I am reduced to sputtering rage. Not good for the ticker, and not good for my writing. I like to think of myself as a reasonable, rational man and the shutdown of a democratic government over a triviality like beginning to address much needed reforms of health-care delivery is not a rational or reasonable thing to do. Besides, Charles Pierce has it covered better than me anyway.
Our carbon-footprint-reducing house projects did not make a lot of progress this summer. My partner broke her arm this spring so was MIA for couple of months. She is critical because she is the painter. I have a bunch of relevant homeowner skills but painting is NOT one of them. Then we decided to rescue windows that had been varnished instead of just painting them. This involved a lot of tedious hand sanding, bleaching out black water stains, and sanding some more. Of course, the side facing out still had to be painted so we were actually doing a two-toned finish job. It was more like performing a careful restoration on a valued old piece of furniture than rebuilding some 55-year-old windows that had suffered from neglect and Minnesota winters. We have been especially happy with 3M's line of green sandpaper and the low-gloss, low-volitile, water-based, clear, urethane version of spar varnish. They look great but we will see if we really fixed the infiltration problems. This obviously doesn't fix the problem of a poorly-performing weather envelope but it's a start. And it's alright that we haven't rushed into the big insulation fixes because getting it right is more important that doing it now.
It is probably a good thing that I have had these distractions over the past few days because when I watch utter morons actually shut down the government because they can no longer win elections, I am reduced to sputtering rage. Not good for the ticker, and not good for my writing. I like to think of myself as a reasonable, rational man and the shutdown of a democratic government over a triviality like beginning to address much needed reforms of health-care delivery is not a rational or reasonable thing to do. Besides, Charles Pierce has it covered better than me anyway.
Monday, September 30, 2013
Crackpot realism—German style
According to C. Wright Mills the man who coined the phrase, crackpot realism is term to describe someone who likes to think himself the essence of sober responsibility but who is in fact, hopelessly insane. The movie Dr. Strangelove was a wonderful depiction of the Cold War crackpot realists who managed to put themselves in charge of the nation's defense machinery but subscribed to a 'reality' that was dangerously apocalyptic. Such people as Robert McNamara and Curtis LeMay came damn close to blowing up the world during the Cuban Missile Crises of 1962.
Economics has had more than its share of crackpot realists. These days, the easiest way to spot one is by their crazed insistence that austerity is the most credible way to address the problems caused by an economic depression. The current German Finance Minister is such a person and in fact, comes from a long line of such people. The most notorious German austerian was Heinrich Brüning, the academic economist / Chancellor whose mismanagement of the economy from 1930-32 was so terrible it led directly to the rise of Hitler. Of course, Wolfgang Schäuble's austerian economics is only doing minor damage to the German economy but his crackpot realism has plunged much of the EU into the worst depression since the heady days of Brüning himself.
Unlike Brüning, Schäuble is not an academic economist. So he picks and chooses from a wide array of austerian "intellectuals" available to re-enforce his biases. It is quite telling in my mind that one of those he chose is the notorious Harvard guy Kenneth Rogoff whose "important" book Growth in a Time of Debt was exposed this spring for its sloppy research, deliberate falsifications, and comical Excel spreadsheet errors. That was April. It's now September and yet one of the most important politicians in Europe seems either to have not gotten the memo on Rogoff or he doesn't care because in his mind, outright academic fraud doesn't discredit the great concept of austerity in the time of crises.
One other thing. Schäuble's crackpot realism is VERY likely doing major long-term damage to the German economy. Austerian economics has transferred many of Europe's crippling financial obligations to the German taxpayers. When those bills come due, it is likely that Schäuble will be remembered as fondly as old Heinrich Brüning.
Economics has had more than its share of crackpot realists. These days, the easiest way to spot one is by their crazed insistence that austerity is the most credible way to address the problems caused by an economic depression. The current German Finance Minister is such a person and in fact, comes from a long line of such people. The most notorious German austerian was Heinrich Brüning, the academic economist / Chancellor whose mismanagement of the economy from 1930-32 was so terrible it led directly to the rise of Hitler. Of course, Wolfgang Schäuble's austerian economics is only doing minor damage to the German economy but his crackpot realism has plunged much of the EU into the worst depression since the heady days of Brüning himself.
Unlike Brüning, Schäuble is not an academic economist. So he picks and chooses from a wide array of austerian "intellectuals" available to re-enforce his biases. It is quite telling in my mind that one of those he chose is the notorious Harvard guy Kenneth Rogoff whose "important" book Growth in a Time of Debt was exposed this spring for its sloppy research, deliberate falsifications, and comical Excel spreadsheet errors. That was April. It's now September and yet one of the most important politicians in Europe seems either to have not gotten the memo on Rogoff or he doesn't care because in his mind, outright academic fraud doesn't discredit the great concept of austerity in the time of crises.
One other thing. Schäuble's crackpot realism is VERY likely doing major long-term damage to the German economy. Austerian economics has transferred many of Europe's crippling financial obligations to the German taxpayers. When those bills come due, it is likely that Schäuble will be remembered as fondly as old Heinrich Brüning.
Sunday, September 29, 2013
The IPCC climate report is out
One of the charming characteristics of the scientifically-trained mind is that folks with one tend to believe that if they just refine their evidence, eventually everyone will buy into to their way of thinking. And for wide swaths of the real economy, this actually happens—precision in thought and action is always a good thing and those who get really good at it are usually rewarded with followers and loyal customers. This precision comes from continual refinement and weighing new evidence.
And so we see more and more studies confirming what has been known for well over a century—carbon in the air traps more energy from the sun. The problem is that with so many studies reaffirming the obvious, some folks start to think that they should start predicting outcomes. This is MANY orders of magnitude more difficult and has led to a bunch of studies that have made some wrong predictions. So instead of piling up evidence that adding carbon to the atmosphere increases the energy in the atmosphere, we have studies that are just wrong enough to call the whole study of climate change into question.
In the case of the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publication, we have a bunch of issues almost guaranteed to make things worse. In USA, anti-UN sentiment has been around for so long, it seems like a permanent fixture of the landscape. So this climate report comes crippled by association in the minds of people who should know better.
Then we have the problem that temperatures have not been rising as predicted for almost 15 years. A surprising number of scientists wanted to just sweep this under the rug. In fact, there are perfectly reasonable explanations for why there is a temperature plateau. Mostly it suggests we don't know enough to go off making predictions based on partial knowledge. For example we are only beginning to understand the role of the oceans as a carbon sink and a thermal buffer.
Anyway, it doesn't matter in the least that there has been a temperature "plateau." The baleful effects of climate change are already here. We don't need any more "proof" that climate change is bad, we need good ideas for how we get out of this mess. And since any meaningful solutions must involve the wholesale substitution for fire—mankind's favorite invention by far—these solutions in the industrial countries that have spent the last 200 years dreaming up more interesting ways and reasons for burning things will be presented with a BIG bill. So instead of these big scientists proving (again) how bad things already are and will get, maybe some could loan out their talents for explaining what sort of economic thinking will encourage so much necessary spending.
And so we see more and more studies confirming what has been known for well over a century—carbon in the air traps more energy from the sun. The problem is that with so many studies reaffirming the obvious, some folks start to think that they should start predicting outcomes. This is MANY orders of magnitude more difficult and has led to a bunch of studies that have made some wrong predictions. So instead of piling up evidence that adding carbon to the atmosphere increases the energy in the atmosphere, we have studies that are just wrong enough to call the whole study of climate change into question.
In the case of the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publication, we have a bunch of issues almost guaranteed to make things worse. In USA, anti-UN sentiment has been around for so long, it seems like a permanent fixture of the landscape. So this climate report comes crippled by association in the minds of people who should know better.
Then we have the problem that temperatures have not been rising as predicted for almost 15 years. A surprising number of scientists wanted to just sweep this under the rug. In fact, there are perfectly reasonable explanations for why there is a temperature plateau. Mostly it suggests we don't know enough to go off making predictions based on partial knowledge. For example we are only beginning to understand the role of the oceans as a carbon sink and a thermal buffer.
Anyway, it doesn't matter in the least that there has been a temperature "plateau." The baleful effects of climate change are already here. We don't need any more "proof" that climate change is bad, we need good ideas for how we get out of this mess. And since any meaningful solutions must involve the wholesale substitution for fire—mankind's favorite invention by far—these solutions in the industrial countries that have spent the last 200 years dreaming up more interesting ways and reasons for burning things will be presented with a BIG bill. So instead of these big scientists proving (again) how bad things already are and will get, maybe some could loan out their talents for explaining what sort of economic thinking will encourage so much necessary spending.
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Friday, September 27, 2013
Taibbi on Benmosche, Krugman on class warfare
Every once in a while, someone in the public eye will say something so socially tone-deaf (and usually historically absurd), the the rest of us simply must take notice. This time, its the CEO of AIG comparing the criticisms of the executive bonuses at bailed-out institutions like his with lynch mobs killing blacks. This outrage is providing great fodder for those who think someone pulling $15 million out of the economy might be a little more understanding for why the rest of us are not happy to see such clowns grabbing so much loot while the real economy teeters on the brink of real failure—bridges falling into rivers, that sort of thing. But we must remember a couple of things:
1) Benmosche is not wrong in his comparisons. That's because deep down inside he knows that if the shoe were on the other foot, HE would be organizing the lynch mob against the banksters. And while he must certainly know that mass uprisings against the moneychangers are really rare and that even the Russian Revolution did not substantially change the international banking arrangements, it is still possible. And it is especially possible in the USA with its traditions of demands for driving the moneychangers out of the temple. The Greenback Party etc. is never quite dead.
2) Benmoshe's statement is not some rare breakdown. This is very likely the way he thinks and talks all the time. What's more, this is what his comrades down at his country club are saying as well. This IS their worldview. And the contempt they show for the folks who must run the real economy is just breath-taking. Because they mostly control the hydraulics of monetary flows, they think they run things. And they do—to the extent that they can do tremendous damage. But they do NOT create the real economy—hell, they barely acknowledge that it exists.
1) Benmosche is not wrong in his comparisons. That's because deep down inside he knows that if the shoe were on the other foot, HE would be organizing the lynch mob against the banksters. And while he must certainly know that mass uprisings against the moneychangers are really rare and that even the Russian Revolution did not substantially change the international banking arrangements, it is still possible. And it is especially possible in the USA with its traditions of demands for driving the moneychangers out of the temple. The Greenback Party etc. is never quite dead.
2) Benmoshe's statement is not some rare breakdown. This is very likely the way he thinks and talks all the time. What's more, this is what his comrades down at his country club are saying as well. This IS their worldview. And the contempt they show for the folks who must run the real economy is just breath-taking. Because they mostly control the hydraulics of monetary flows, they think they run things. And they do—to the extent that they can do tremendous damage. But they do NOT create the real economy—hell, they barely acknowledge that it exists.
Thursday, September 26, 2013
Wind power, the Producers, and fun
Perhaps the biggest flaw in Marxist class analysis is their assumption that rich folks are all alike—mostly bastards, actually. And the biggest advantage of Producer / Predator class analysis is the realization that these are very different people—even when they are very rich and most especially when they are having fun.
I just spent a couple of hours watching the 19th and final race of the 34th America's Cup on my computer. As an example of an expensive Producer Class sport, it would be exceedingly difficult to top sailboat racing. And this one was ridiculously expensive with educated estimates putting the cost to enter a boat in the neighborhood of $100 million.
What made this year's America's Cup so expensive were the new boats called AC72s. Not only were they catamarans, they were made of carbon fiber, the mainsail had been replaced by an articulated wing 13 stories tall, and they had L-shaped daggerboards that lifted them out of the water at speed. Making all this work was an incredible task for the designers, hydrodynamicists, navel architects, and the folks who fabricated all the specialized parts. And once these amazingly complex boats were built, the crews had to figure out how to actually sail them. These boats are VERY fast and unforgiving.
Needless to say, the learning curve was damn near vertical in the beginning. There were breakdowns and accidents. An Oracle Team USA boat capsized on a training run and was dragged by the tides upside down through the Golden Gate out into the Pacific. They didn't actually lose the boat but there was enough damage that it required four months of repairs. Team Sweden had an Olympic medalist crew member named "Bart" Simpson go overboard in an accident and even though there were rescue crews on the scene within seconds, he still died.
In the preliminary rounds, team New Zealand pretty easily disposed of teams from Sweden and Italy. Helmsman Dean Barker and his crew were astonishing smooth, coordinated, and graceful. By the time they came up against the team from USA, they were a well-oiled unit and would run up the score to 8-1 (first team to 9 wins) and were leading by a wide margin in a supposedly ninth victory when the race was called off due to insufficient wind. They would not win another race.
In the early going, Team New Zealand was just crushing Team USA on the upwind leg. Part of this was the Kiwis were just smoother on their tacks. Tacking a catamaran is extremely difficult anyway, but the AC72s are so light, they have almost no momentum to get them through that moment when the wind comes right over the bow. Any tiny mistake on a tack and the boat can come dead in the water (or very close.)
But after suffering their near-death-down-8-1 experience, Team USA started to go faster upwind. Part of this was improved crew performance—these are world-class sailors who were not about to go screwing up forever. But mostly, the boat got faster. No one knows why because the folks who did the improving aren't talking (yet). But this is typical of Producer Class sports—the difference between winning and losing is usually the result of efforts by folks we never see on TV. Nerds with serious computer skills and advanced degrees in subjects like fluid dynamics. Once the USA boat was faster, winning eight straight races was mostly a matter of not screwing up. Interestingly, Team New Zealand got faster upwind in their desperate attempt to win the ninth race but they didn't improve as much or as quickly as Team USA. Their seamanship was still stunning but they were losing the battle of the nerds who tweaked the boats between races.
It is probably fitting that a Producer Class sporting event was won by a Producer Class billionaire. Larry Ellison's enterprise (Oracle) lives and dies by its nerds. Ellison himself is a classic nerd. And the nerds just won him the Americas Cup. Here Ellison is interviewed by Charlie Rose.
I just spent a couple of hours watching the 19th and final race of the 34th America's Cup on my computer. As an example of an expensive Producer Class sport, it would be exceedingly difficult to top sailboat racing. And this one was ridiculously expensive with educated estimates putting the cost to enter a boat in the neighborhood of $100 million.
What made this year's America's Cup so expensive were the new boats called AC72s. Not only were they catamarans, they were made of carbon fiber, the mainsail had been replaced by an articulated wing 13 stories tall, and they had L-shaped daggerboards that lifted them out of the water at speed. Making all this work was an incredible task for the designers, hydrodynamicists, navel architects, and the folks who fabricated all the specialized parts. And once these amazingly complex boats were built, the crews had to figure out how to actually sail them. These boats are VERY fast and unforgiving.
Needless to say, the learning curve was damn near vertical in the beginning. There were breakdowns and accidents. An Oracle Team USA boat capsized on a training run and was dragged by the tides upside down through the Golden Gate out into the Pacific. They didn't actually lose the boat but there was enough damage that it required four months of repairs. Team Sweden had an Olympic medalist crew member named "Bart" Simpson go overboard in an accident and even though there were rescue crews on the scene within seconds, he still died.
In the preliminary rounds, team New Zealand pretty easily disposed of teams from Sweden and Italy. Helmsman Dean Barker and his crew were astonishing smooth, coordinated, and graceful. By the time they came up against the team from USA, they were a well-oiled unit and would run up the score to 8-1 (first team to 9 wins) and were leading by a wide margin in a supposedly ninth victory when the race was called off due to insufficient wind. They would not win another race.
In the early going, Team New Zealand was just crushing Team USA on the upwind leg. Part of this was the Kiwis were just smoother on their tacks. Tacking a catamaran is extremely difficult anyway, but the AC72s are so light, they have almost no momentum to get them through that moment when the wind comes right over the bow. Any tiny mistake on a tack and the boat can come dead in the water (or very close.)
But after suffering their near-death-down-8-1 experience, Team USA started to go faster upwind. Part of this was improved crew performance—these are world-class sailors who were not about to go screwing up forever. But mostly, the boat got faster. No one knows why because the folks who did the improving aren't talking (yet). But this is typical of Producer Class sports—the difference between winning and losing is usually the result of efforts by folks we never see on TV. Nerds with serious computer skills and advanced degrees in subjects like fluid dynamics. Once the USA boat was faster, winning eight straight races was mostly a matter of not screwing up. Interestingly, Team New Zealand got faster upwind in their desperate attempt to win the ninth race but they didn't improve as much or as quickly as Team USA. Their seamanship was still stunning but they were losing the battle of the nerds who tweaked the boats between races.
It is probably fitting that a Producer Class sporting event was won by a Producer Class billionaire. Larry Ellison's enterprise (Oracle) lives and dies by its nerds. Ellison himself is a classic nerd. And the nerds just won him the Americas Cup. Here Ellison is interviewed by Charlie Rose.
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
Class still matters
While money is important—especially when the Wal-Mart heirs have more of it that the poorer half of the USA population—I am still convinced after all these years that the biggest class differences are between Veblen's Leisure Classes and Industrial Classes (or as like to explain it—between the Producers and Predators). This has been true for a very long time—the difference between a Viking raider and his boatbuilder is enormous but no larger than the priests of Christianity and the guys who built stone cathedrals with ceilings over 100' (30 meters) above the floor.
Because Producers learn from their mistakes, they improve their output by orders of magnitude over time. The Viking longboats and cathedrals were phenomenal achievements but they are charmingly primitive alongside an integrated circuit or flat-screen TV—not to mention a modern automobile that combines all these technologies. Not surprisingly, the gap in consciousness between Producers and Predators has also grown over time since the Leisure Classes are quite content to retain their time-honored strategies of force and fraud. And why should they change—no matter how sophisticated the Producers become, they can always have their work stolen by the lovely class of people who invented slavery and compound interest.
What is interesting these days is that the BIG problems like climate change or the end of the age of petroleum can only be solved by Producers. The very survival of the human race is dependent on the Predators stopping their destructive behavior and getting on with the business of funding the Producers. Of course, this has happened before in history—the clergy at Chartres spent over a century essentially raising funds for their cathedral builders while I would guess that more than one Viking chieftain went broke buying boats.
IF, and this is a huge if, the Leisure Classes do want to stay ahead of the increasingly angry mobs, they must go back to their semi-useful function of fund-raisers.
Because Producers learn from their mistakes, they improve their output by orders of magnitude over time. The Viking longboats and cathedrals were phenomenal achievements but they are charmingly primitive alongside an integrated circuit or flat-screen TV—not to mention a modern automobile that combines all these technologies. Not surprisingly, the gap in consciousness between Producers and Predators has also grown over time since the Leisure Classes are quite content to retain their time-honored strategies of force and fraud. And why should they change—no matter how sophisticated the Producers become, they can always have their work stolen by the lovely class of people who invented slavery and compound interest.
What is interesting these days is that the BIG problems like climate change or the end of the age of petroleum can only be solved by Producers. The very survival of the human race is dependent on the Predators stopping their destructive behavior and getting on with the business of funding the Producers. Of course, this has happened before in history—the clergy at Chartres spent over a century essentially raising funds for their cathedral builders while I would guess that more than one Viking chieftain went broke buying boats.
IF, and this is a huge if, the Leisure Classes do want to stay ahead of the increasingly angry mobs, they must go back to their semi-useful function of fund-raisers.
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
Is offshore wind finally coming to USA?
Wind turbines are relatively common here in the midwest. I can quite easily walk to a 1.62 megawatt Vestas owned by one of the local colleges. I happen to like watching these giants turning gracefully in the wind and wonder just what anyone could find objectionable about them. They are so quiet you must actually stand very near one to even hear it and my neighborhood cats are FAR more hazardous to birds than these slow-turning wind machines could ever be.
Of course, the real problem with wind turbines here in the midwest is that all the really good wind sites are a long way from the nation's major population centers. North Dakota has hundreds of prime wind locations but that state has just over 600,000 inhabitants and is over 1000 miles from anywhere most of its power could be consumed.
Off the east coast, there are many prime wind locations. The Atlantic is quite shallow for miles offshore due to the continental shelf. Best of all, nearly 1/3 of the nation's population lives within 100 miles of the coast. By any reasonable measurement, the east coast of USA should be carpeted with wind farms. In fact, the first turbine came online just this year and its only a 20-kilowatt toy. But Dave Levitan writing in the Guardian thinks this situation is about to change. We will see. It takes time for power companies to develop a wind turbine culture and the east coast utilities are not known for their innovation nor their maintenance culture—two things utterly essential to keep those silent giants turning and harvesting energy from the atmosphere.
Of course, the real problem with wind turbines here in the midwest is that all the really good wind sites are a long way from the nation's major population centers. North Dakota has hundreds of prime wind locations but that state has just over 600,000 inhabitants and is over 1000 miles from anywhere most of its power could be consumed.
Off the east coast, there are many prime wind locations. The Atlantic is quite shallow for miles offshore due to the continental shelf. Best of all, nearly 1/3 of the nation's population lives within 100 miles of the coast. By any reasonable measurement, the east coast of USA should be carpeted with wind farms. In fact, the first turbine came online just this year and its only a 20-kilowatt toy. But Dave Levitan writing in the Guardian thinks this situation is about to change. We will see. It takes time for power companies to develop a wind turbine culture and the east coast utilities are not known for their innovation nor their maintenance culture—two things utterly essential to keep those silent giants turning and harvesting energy from the atmosphere.
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