Why It Won't Happen
by URI AVNERY MARCH 12, 2012
Israel will not attack Iran. Period.
The United States will not attack Iran. Period.
The United States will not attack. Not this year, nor in years to come. For a reason far more important than electoral considerations or military limitations. The United States will not attack, because an attack would spell a national disaster for itself and a sweeping disaster for the whole world.
“If you want to understand the policy of a country, take a look at the map,” said Napoleon. Minutes after an attack is launched, Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, through which passes almost all the oil exported by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq and Iran – 40% of the world’s sea-borne oil passes through the strait. A few minutes after that, oil prices will rise, will double, triple or quadruple – and the U.S. and global economy will collapse.
Such small issues do not cross the minds of generals, military commentators and other wise guys who look at the world between narrow “security” blinkers.
Closing the Strait would be the most easy of military operations. A few missiles, launched from either the sea or the land, would do it. To reopen it, it would not be enough to send the US Navy’s mighty aircraft carriers on show cruises. The United States would have to conquer large parts of Iran, so as to put the Strait out of range of the Iranian missiles. Iran is larger than Germany, France, Spain and Italy combined. It would be a long war, something on the scale of the Vietnam War.
For Iran, there is no difference between an Israeli attack and an American attack. They would be treated as one and the same. In both cases, the consequence will be the blocking of the Strait and a large scale war.
All of which is more than enough for the United States not to attack, and to forbid Israel from attacking. more
Monday, March 12, 2012
Avnery is unusually sane for an Israeli. He works his butt off trying to get the Zionist state to be more peaceful. So these predictions may be 99% wishful thinking. But considering the economic calamity a war with Iran would produce, we are all entitled to a little wishful thinking.